India-Maldives: Navigating a Shifting Geopolitical Tide in the Indian Ocean

 Context: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will land in Male on July 25-26 for the Independence Day of Maldives where both sides are expected to launch the digital payment system UPI and streamline mechanisms to increase tourist visits between both the countries.

History of India-Maldives Relations:

• Ancient & Pre-Colonial Era:

1. Due to Maldives' location on ancient maritime trade routes, India and Maldives enjoyed economic and cultural ties.
2. Kalingas of ancient India, who traded with Sri Lanka and Maldives, facilitated the spread of Buddhism to these lands.
3. Maldives was an important centre for trade in cowrie shells which were used as currency for trade with other countries across Asia and East Africa.

• Colonial Era:

1. Beginning 16th century, European powers like the Portuguese, French and Dutch interfered in Maldives' domestic politics in order to increase their maritime influence in Indian Ocean.
2. 19th Century witnessed Maldives becoming a British protectorate. During this time, India also was a British colony.
3. In 1965, Maldives gained full independence from Britain. India was one of the first counries to recognize Maldives. 

• Post-Independence Era:

1. India and Maldives signed the Maritime Boundary Treaty (1976) which defined maritime boundary between them.
2. The Comprehensive Trade Agreement (1981) facilitated trade in essential commodities and laid the framework for further commercial exchange.
3. Maldives continuously supported India in different multilateral forums such as UN, Commonwealth, NAM, and SAARC (of which both are founding members).

Operation Cactus (1988):

• On November 3, 1988, a group of Maldivians aided by armed mercenaries allied to a Sri Lankan Tamil secessionist group attempted a coup aganist then Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.
• India launched Operation Cactus, swiftly launching its paratroopers and successfully thwarting the coup within hours.
• This intervention solidified India's image as a reliable 'first responder' and 'net security provider' for Maldives in the Indian Ocean Region.

Areas of Cooperation:

• Economic & Developmental Partnership:

1. Financial Assistance: India provides Lines of Credit (LoC) for various infrastructure projects, budgetary support, and currency swap agreements. For example, the $1.4 billion financial package announced in 2018 and introduction of treasury bills by SBI.
2. Infrastructure Development: India is involved in multiple key infrastructure projects across the Maldives. For example, Greater Male Connectivity Project, housing projects, port development etc.
3. Trade Relations: India is a significant provider of essential commodities such as food (rice, spices, fruits, vegetables), medicines,construction materials etc.
4. Trade in Local Currency: Local currency trade settlement encourages the use of local currencies for cross-border trade, reducing dependence on US Dollar.
5. Tourism: India remains one of the largest sources of tourists visiting Maldives, boosting its local economy.

• Security & Defence Cooperation:

1. India provides extensive training to Maldivian Defence Forces, including training at premier Indian defense institutes.
2. Regular joint military exercises such as Ekuverin (Army), Dosti (Coast Guard), Ekatha (Navy) focus on counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism, emergency response, search and rescue etc.
3. Cooperation in enhancing maritime domain awareness as India has provided a network of coastal radars along with Dornier Aircraft and helicopters for surveillance, medical evacuation and search and rescue operations.
4. Both countries are part of Colombo Security Conclave along with Sri Lanka that seeks to enhance regional security cooperation.

• Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief (HADR):

1. India has consistently been a first responder to emergency situations in Maldives including during 2004 Tsunami and 2014 Male Water  Crisis (Operation Neer).
2. Maldives was the first country to receive COVID-19 vaccines from India apart from PPE kits and medical teams.
3. India has also provided 30,000 doses of measles vaccines to Maldives.

• People-to-People Connection:

1. A significant number of Indian expatriates live in Maldives contributing to its economic development and remittance flow.
2. India offers numerous scholarships/facilities to Maldivian students e.g National Knowledge Network (research collaboration) and Maldives Institute of Technical Education (established with Indian assistance).

• Multilateral Cooperation: 

1. Both countries are founding members of SAARC and active members of the Commonwealth.
2. Maldives supports India's bid for a permanent seat in UNSC.
3. India and Maldives cooperate for a secure and prosperous Indian Ocean i.e SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).

Areas of Concern:

• Political Volatility in Maldives:

1. Noticeable tilt towards China during the presidency of Abdulla Yameen (2013-18).
2. Extensive 'India Out' campaigns during the initial phase of current president Mohammed Muizzu's term.
3. Withdrawal of Indian military personnel, operating Dornier aircraft and helicopters for relief  operations in Maldives, as a direct outcome of India Out campaign. India has replaced its military personnel with civilian engineers.
4. Derogatory remarks made by Maldivian ministers against the Indian PM in early 2024.

• Growing Chinese Influence:

1. Maldives is a strategic location for China's String of Pearls strategy and supports China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
2. Concerns relating to China's debt trap diplomacy where Maldives' economic dependence on China could give Beijing political leverage.
3. Presence of Chinese research vessels in Maldivian waters that are suspected of spying on India.

• Radicalization and Security Threats:

1. Maldives has been a hotbed of Islamist radicalization with concerns relating to its youth being  drawn to terror outfits like Islamic State (IS).
2. Concerns relating to remote Maldivian islands being used for ant-Indian activities is a major issue.

• Perceived Hegemony:

1. Indian is often portrayed as a regional hegemon in some circles of Maldivian politics despite its Neighbourhood First Policy.
2. Maldivian government's decision not to renew the agreement with India for joint hydrographic survey of its waters is another example of sovereignty concerns.

Way Forward:

• Regular diplomatic engagement at all levels is a necessary prerequisite to address concerns and maintain trust.
• Focusing on shared interests including maritime security, climate change, disaster risk reduction can solidify the partnership.
• Both countries need to consider each other's sovereignty and avoid interference.
• Streamline India-backed infrastructure projects to avoid time and cost overruns.
• Look for new avenues of cooperation beyond traditional areas such as renewable energy, digital economy and skill development.

Conclusion: Notwithstanding recent political developments, India-Maldives relationship is woven with a thread of shared history and cultural affinity. The path forward lies in pragmatic engagement and mutual respect.